2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis

2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis
Part of the Crisis in Venezuela
Juan Guaidó in Group of Lima 2019 collage crop.jpg
Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela (2016) cropped.jpg
Date10 January 2019 (2019-01-10) – ongoing
(7 months and 15 days)
Location
Caused by
MethodsProtests, support campaigns, foreign diplomatic pressure and international sanctions
StatusOngoing
Parties to the civil conflict

A crisis concerning who is the legitimate President of Venezuela has been underway since 10 January 2019, with the nation and the world divided in support for Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó.

The process and results of the May 2018 Venezuelan presidential election were widely disputed.[1][2] The opposition-majority National Assembly declared Maduro a "usurper" of the presidency on the day of his second inauguration and disclosed a plan to set forth its president, Juan Guaidó as the succeeding acting President of the country under article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution.[2][5] A week later, the pro-Maduro Supreme Tribunal of Justice declared that the presidency of the National Assembly was the "usurper" of authority and declared the body to be unconstitutional.[2]

Minutes after Maduro took the oath as President of Venezuela, the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Special meetings of the OAS on 24 January and in the United Nations Security Council on 26 January were held but no consensus was reached. Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres called for dialogue.[7] During the 49th General Assembly of the Organization of American States, on 27 June, Guaidó's presidency was recognized by the organization.[8]

Guaidó declared that he was acting president and took the presidential oath on 23 January.[4] Maduro's government has accused the United States of organizing a coup d'état to remove him and take control of the country's oil reserves.[9] Guaidó rejects the characterization of his actions as a coup, saying that his movement is backed by peaceful volunteers.[10] As of June 2019, Guaidó has been recognized as the acting President of Venezuela by 54 countries.[11] Internationally, support has followed traditional geopolitical lines, with allies China, Cuba, Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey supporting Maduro; and the US, Canada, and most of Western Europe supporting Guaidó as acting President.[12]

Background

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro (and briefly under his predecessor, Hugo Chávez), as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminish the quality of life.[13][14] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[15] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—consisting of Bolivarian officials—filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[15][16] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[15]

In January 2016, the National Assembly declared a "health humanitarian crisis" given the "serious shortage of medicines, medical supplies and deterioration of humanitarian infrastructure", asking Maduro's government to "guarantee immediate access to the list of essential medicines that are basic and indispensable and that must be accessible at all times".[17]

External video
Human Rights Watch multimedia report regarding the 2017 protests on YouTube

The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.[15] As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez.[18] Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely,[19] and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC).[20][21] The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power".[22] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default.[23] On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[24]

Maduro disavowed the National Assembly in 2017;[25][26] as of 2018, some considered the National Assembly the only "legitimate" institution left in the country,[a] and human rights organizations said there were no independent institutional checks on presidential power.[b]

2018 election and calls for transitional government

In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date.[40] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid.[41] Politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected,[42] and considered him an ineffective dictator.[43] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[44][45] Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[46][47]

In December 2018, Guaidó had traveled to Washington D.C. and met with OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, and then on 14 January 2019 to Colombia for a Lima Group meeting, in which Maduro's mandate was rejected. According to an article in El País, the January Lima Group meeting and the stance taken by Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland were key. El País describes Donald Trump's election—coinciding with the election of conservative presidents in Colombia and Brazil, along with deteriorating conditions in Venezuela—as "a perfect storm", with decisions influenced by U.S. officials including Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton, and legislators Mario Díaz-Balart and Marco Rubio. Venezuelans Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges and Gustavo Tarre were consulted, and the Trump administration decision to back Guaidó formed on 22 January, according to El País. Díaz-Balart said that the decision was the result of two years of planning.[48]

Justification for the challenge

The Venezuelan opposition bases its actions on the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution, specifically Articles 233, 333 and 350.[49]

The first paragraph of Article 233 states: "when the president-elect is absolutely absent before taking office, a new election shall take place (...) And while the president is elected and takes office, the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly".[50][c][d]

Article 333 calls for citizens to restore and enforce the Constitution if it is not followed.[50][c] Article 350 calls for citizens to "disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights”.[52][53][c]

Article 233 was invoked after death of Hugo Chávez, which took place soon after his inauguration, and extraordinary elections were called within thirty days.[54][55] Invoked by the National Assembly, Guaidó was declared acting president until elections could be held; Diego A. Zambrano, an assistant professor of law at Stanford Law School, says that "Venezuelan lawyers disagree on the best reading of this provision. Some argue Guaidó can serve longer if the electoral process is scheduled within a reasonable time".[56] The National Assembly announced that it will designate a committee to appoint a new National Electoral Council, in anticipation of free elections.[57]

Guaidó argues that both the national and international community must unite behind a transitional government that will guarantee humanitarian aid, bring about the restoration of rule of law in Venezuela, and will hold democratic elections.[58]

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